by David Vicari

This year The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has doubled the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. This is a practice it used more than a half-century ago, when there was a much larger volume of movies in release. So, here are the ten movies nominated for Best Picture of 2009, and my take on which one will win and reasons why the other nine won’t.

The Blind Side – Sandra Bullock will win Best Actress for her sassy performance, but this feel-good, real-life sports drama is a little too syrupy and familiar to grab Best Picture.

District 9 – For my money, this would be the Best Picture of 2009, but the Academy generally doesn’t like science fiction, even though the film has some social commentary, and I don’t think the film is epic enough for them.

An Education – It’s a great little coming-of-age drama that is too small to appear on the Academy’s radar.

Inglourious Basterds – Christoph Waltz will win Best Supporting Actor for his performance as a sadistic Nazi, but the film itself actually isn’t that good.

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire – This over-heated melodrama has more of a chance of becoming a camp classic in the tradition of Mommie Dearest (1981) than it does nabbing Best Picture. Mo'Nique, as the wicked mother, will take home the gold as Best Supporting Actress.

A Serious Man – The Coen brothers already have a recent and undeserved Best Picture win with No Country for Old Men (2007), so I don’t think they will be getting another one any time soon.

Up – It’ll win in the Best Animated Feature category.

Up in the Air – Great film, but too introspective for Academy voters.

Avatar – It is going to win all the technical awards and possible Best Director for James Cameron, but the story isn’t important enough to garner Best Picture.

The Hurt Locker – I think this is going to win for Best Picture. It’s an excellent movie, but also topical as it deals with the war in Iraq.